Today / Canada - Premier League / Atlético Ottawa vs York United

Atlético Ottawa vs York United Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 23:00

Atlético Ottawa

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

York United

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.3%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.2%1-16.3%1-23.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.2%2-18.7%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-110.8%4+-26.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 54.9% 1.82 +10.3%

Draw 18.2% 25.6% 3.90 -17.4%

Away win 21.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

Over 3.5 48.2% 46.5% 2.15 +3.6%

BTTS 63.1% 70.4% 1.42 -10.4%

Home O1.5 66.0% 63.7% 1.57 +3.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 61% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.7%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Ottawa2.8

York United1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA · PPG 2.22

YORK UNITED · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Ottawa (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV +10.3%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -17.4%

York United (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Ottawa face York United in Canada - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Ottawa a 61% chance, the draw 18% and York United 21%, so Atlético Ottawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.2 for York United (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Ottawa are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.88 for York United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Atlético Ottawa vs York United Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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