Today / Canada - Premier League / HFX Wanderers FC vs Vancouver FC

HFX Wanderers FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

HFX Wanderers FC

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vancouver FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.1%0-26.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.5%1-112.1%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.0%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 33.6% 2.98 +10.6%

Draw 25.5% 29.9% 3.35 -8.8%

Away win 37.3% 45.9% 2.18 -18.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 54.7% 67.6% 1.48 -19.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 44.4% 2.25 -14.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 1–0✓ 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HFX Wanderers FC1.3

Vancouver FC1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HFX WANDERERS FC · PPG 1.12

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HFX Wanderers FC (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +10.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.8%

Vancouver FC (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

HFX Wanderers FC face Vancouver FC in Canada - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Vancouver FC 37%, so Vancouver FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.4 for Vancouver FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Vancouver FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-0.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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