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Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:30

Cavalry FC

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Atlético Ottawa

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.5%1-17.8%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.3%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-17.7%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Draw 18.5% 24.4% 4.10 -14.5%

Away win 19.9% 17.9% 5.60 +6.9%

Over 2.5 62.6% 62.5% 1.60 +0.2%

Over 3.5 38.7% 40.0% 2.50 -3.3%

BTTS 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 17.9% 29.0% 3.45 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.0%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavalry FC2.4

Atlético Ottawa0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVALRY FC · PPG 2.50

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.50 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cavalry FC (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -7.6%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -14.5%

Atlético Ottawa (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavalry FC face Atlético Ottawa in Canada - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavalry FC a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Atlético Ottawa 20%, so Cavalry FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cavalry FC and 0.7 for Atlético Ottawa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavalry FC are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.11 for Atlético Ottawa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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