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Pacific FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 22:00

Pacific FC

PPG 0.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HFX Wanderers FC

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.2%0-26.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.4%1-111.4%1-28.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.0%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 36.0% 2.78 +1.8%

Draw 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Away win 38.6% 45.9% 2.18 -15.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

BTTS 60.2% 69.0% 1.45 -12.7%

Home O1.5 39.7% 46.5% 2.15 -14.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.2%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pacific FC1.4

HFX Wanderers FC1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PACIFIC FC · PPG 0.22

HFX WANDERERS FC · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pacific FC (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

HFX Wanderers FC (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pacific FC face HFX Wanderers FC in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pacific FC a 37% chance, the draw 25% and HFX Wanderers FC 39%, so HFX Wanderers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pacific FC and 1.5 for HFX Wanderers FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pacific FC are averaging 0.22 points per game versus 0.80 for HFX Wanderers FC. This match finished 4-3.

Pacific FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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