Today / Canada - Premier League / Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC

Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:00

Atlético Ottawa

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vancouver FC

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.6%0-26.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.5%1-110.8%1-29.0%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-17.7%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.6%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 41.0% 2.44 -16.3%

Draw 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -7.9%

Away win 41.9% 40.3% 2.48 +3.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

BTTS 61.3% 69.0% 1.45 -11.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 51.3% 1.95 -22.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–2 6.3%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Ottawa1.4

Vancouver FC1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA · PPG 2.12

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Ottawa (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -16.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.9%

Vancouver FC (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Ottawa face Vancouver FC in Canada - Premier League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Ottawa a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Vancouver FC 42%, so Vancouver FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.7 for Vancouver FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Ottawa are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.43 for Vancouver FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Canada - Premier League Predictions