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Forge vs York United Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Forge

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

UPCOMING

York United

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 72% chance

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-13.7%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.1%1-18.2%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.5%3-16.6%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-16.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 80.0% 1.25 -22.3%

Draw 18.4% 20.8% 4.80 -7.0%

Away win 19.5% 10.0% 10.00 +57.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

BTTS 50.3% 54.6% 1.83 -8.0%

Home O1.5 65.9% 75.2% 1.33 -12.3%

Away O1.5 15.6% 22.2% 4.50 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.3%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 3–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forge2.2

York United0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FORGE · PPG 2.38

YORK UNITED · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

72%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forge (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -22.3%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -7.0%

York United (A) 19.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +57.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forge face York United in Canada - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forge a 62% chance, the draw 18% and York United 20%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Forge and 0.6 for York United (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forge are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.78 for York United. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Forge vs York United Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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