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Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 22:00

Vancouver FC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

UPCOMING

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.3%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-111.1%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 48.8% 2.05 -3.5%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 28.9% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 53.6% 63.7% 1.57 -15.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Away O1.5 31.3% 42.0% 2.38 -25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.6%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vancouver FC1.8

Supra du Quebec1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VANCOUVER FC · PPG 1.70

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.22

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vancouver FC (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Supra du Quebec (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vancouver FC face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vancouver FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Supra du Quebec 29%, so Vancouver FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vancouver FC and 1.0 for Supra du Quebec (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vancouver FC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.22 for Supra du Quebec. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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