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Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 23:00

Supra du Quebec

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Forge

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-112.0%0-210.1%0-35.7%0-4+3.5%1 1-06.8%1-111.5%1-29.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.3%2-15.5%2-24.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.7%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 51.0% 51.3% 1.95 -0.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

BTTS 54.3% 58.8% 1.70 -7.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.3%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–2 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Supra du Quebec1.0

Forge1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 0.89

FORGE · PPG 2.11

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.72 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Supra du Quebec (H) 24.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Forge (A) 51.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Supra du Quebec face Forge in Canada - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Supra du Quebec a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Forge 51%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Supra du Quebec and 1.7 for Forge (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Supra du Quebec are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 2.11 for Forge. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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