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Cordoba vs Granada CF Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:30

Cordoba

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Granada CF

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.7%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.5%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.0%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.3%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 54.3% 1.84 -20.0%

Draw 27.1% 29.4% 3.40 -4.7%

Away win 29.4% 23.3% 4.30 +15.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cordoba1.4

Granada CF1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORDOBA · PPG 1.76

GRANADA CF · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cordoba (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -20.0%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.7%

Granada CF (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cordoba face Granada CF in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cordoba a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Granada CF 29%, so Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cordoba and 1.1 for Granada CF (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cordoba are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.17 for Granada CF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Cordoba vs Granada CF Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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