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Eibar vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

Eibar

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Valladolid

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.4%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.2%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 46.5% 2.15 +8.2%

Draw 26.4% 34.5% 2.90 -14.1%

Away win 23.3% 30.3% 3.30 -13.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 43.5% 2.30 +15.5%

Over 3.5 30.2% 23.1% 4.33 +30.8%

BTTS 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 42.0% 2.38 +16.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 1–0✓ 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eibar1.8

Valladolid1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EIBAR · PPG 1.62

VALLADOLID · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eibar (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.1%

Valladolid (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eibar face Valladolid in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eibar a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Valladolid 23%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Eibar and 1.0 for Valladolid (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eibar are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.88 for Valladolid. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Eibar vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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