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Sporting Gijon vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Sporting Gijon

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Burgos

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.4%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 40.8% 2.45 -5.9%

Draw 32.7% 34.7% 2.88 -5.8%

Away win 28.9% 34.5% 2.90 -9.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 20.0% 5.00 +16.8%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 33.3% 3.00 +13.4%

Away O1.5 32.3% 29.4% 3.40 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0✓ 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Gijon1.3

Burgos1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 1.61

BURGOS · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Gijon (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -5.9%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.8%

Burgos (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Gijon face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Gijon a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Burgos 29%, so Sporting Gijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sporting Gijon and 1.0 for Burgos (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Gijon are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.58 for Burgos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Sporting Gijon vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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