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AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

AD Ceuta FC

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Las Palmas

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.0%0-27.0%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.9%2-17.6%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 31.7% 3.15 -2.0%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 43.7% 42.7% 2.34 +2.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.2% 3.55 +11.8%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 35.7% 2.80 +5.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 0–2✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AD Ceuta FC1.3

Las Palmas1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AD CEUTA FC · PPG 1.76

LAS PALMAS · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AD Ceuta FC (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -2.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Las Palmas (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AD Ceuta FC face Las Palmas in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AD Ceuta FC a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Las Palmas 44%, so Las Palmas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.5 for Las Palmas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AD Ceuta FC are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.47 for Las Palmas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.7%. This match finished 0-2.

AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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