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Radomlje vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:30

Radomlje

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aluminij

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.8%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.4%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 43.5% 2.30 +4.9%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 29.7% 36.2% 2.76 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 59.9% 1.67 -10.3%

Over 3.5 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

BTTS 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Home O1.5 49.0% 50.0% 2.00 -2.0%

Away O1.5 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.4%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomlje1.7

Aluminij1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMLJE · PPG 1.09

ALUMINIJ · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Radomlje (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Aluminij (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomlje face Aluminij in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomlje a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Aluminij 30%, so Radomlje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Radomlje and 1.2 for Aluminij (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomlje are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.98 for Aluminij. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.8%.

Radomlje vs Aluminij Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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