Today / France - Ligue 2 / Montpellier vs Boulogne

Montpellier vs Boulogne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Montpellier

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Boulogne

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-110.6%0-23.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-17.1%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 59.5% 1.68 -22.6%

Draw 31.9% 27.4% 3.65 +16.4%

Away win 21.9% 20.0% 5.00 +5.7%

Over 2.5 34.2% 51.3% 1.95 -33.3%

Over 3.5 18.0% 29.4% 3.40 -23.3%

BTTS 42.6% 54.1% 1.85 -21.2%

Home O1.5 31.3% 55.6% 1.80 -43.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.6% 3.90 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 0–0✓ 16.6%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montpellier1.2

Boulogne0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.50

BOULOGNE · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Montpellier (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -22.6%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +16.4%

Boulogne (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montpellier face Boulogne in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montpellier a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Boulogne 22%, so Montpellier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Montpellier and 0.6 for Boulogne (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montpellier are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.11 for Boulogne. This match finished 0-0.

Montpellier vs Boulogne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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