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Dungannon Swifts vs Bangor Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Dungannon Swifts

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bangor

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.3%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.1%1-111.0%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.6%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 58.8% 1.70 -19.1%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 27.4% 24.4% 4.10 +7.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.8% 1.73 -6.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0✓ 7.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dungannon Swifts1.7

Bangor1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNGANNON SWIFTS · PPG 1.33

BANGOR · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dungannon Swifts (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -19.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

Bangor (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dungannon Swifts face Bangor in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dungannon Swifts a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Bangor 27%, so Dungannon Swifts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dungannon Swifts and 1.2 for Bangor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dungannon Swifts are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Bangor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Dungannon Swifts vs Bangor Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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