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Boreham Wood vs Carlisle Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

Boreham Wood

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Carlisle

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.3%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.0%1-18.8%1-26.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-16.3%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.3%4+-23.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 59.5% 1.68 -16.5%

Draw 21.3% 26.0% 3.85 -10.8%

Away win 29.0% 24.4% 4.10 +11.3%

Over 2.5 67.9% 66.7% 1.50 +1.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boreham Wood2.1

Carlisle1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOREHAM WOOD · PPG 2.00

CARLISLE · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boreham Wood (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -16.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.8%

Carlisle (A) 29.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boreham Wood face Carlisle in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boreham Wood a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Carlisle 29%, so Boreham Wood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Boreham Wood and 1.5 for Carlisle (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boreham Wood are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.57 for Carlisle. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Boreham Wood vs Carlisle Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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