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Plzen vs Slovácko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Plzen

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Slovácko

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.0%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-18.8%1-25.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.2%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.7%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 77.5% 1.29 -28.5%

Draw 21.9% 20.0% 5.00 +5.7%

Away win 22.7% 11.1% 9.00 +62.6%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

BTTS 60.8% 54.6% 1.83 +11.3%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 20.0% 5.00 +65.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 5.0%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plzen2.2

Slovácko1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PLZEN · PPG 1.61

SLOVÁCKO · PPG 0.65

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Plzen (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -28.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.7%

Slovácko (A) 22.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +62.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plzen face Slovácko in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plzen a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Slovácko 23%, so Plzen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Plzen and 1.1 for Slovácko (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plzen are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.65 for Slovácko. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +65.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Plzen vs Slovácko Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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