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Teplice vs FK Jablonec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Teplice

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FK Jablonec

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.8%0-25.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.6%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Away win 41.7% 35.7% 2.80 +16.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 51.3% 1.95 +16.4%

Over 3.5 37.0% 29.4% 3.40 +25.8%

BTTS 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.2% 2.62 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teplice1.5

FK Jablonec1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TEPLICE · PPG 1.32

FK JABLONEC · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Teplice (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

FK Jablonec (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teplice face FK Jablonec in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teplice a 35% chance, the draw 23% and FK Jablonec 42%, so FK Jablonec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Teplice and 1.5 for FK Jablonec (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teplice are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.69 for FK Jablonec. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Teplice vs FK Jablonec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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