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Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Sparta Praha

PPG 2.34 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Slavia Praha

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.0%0-24.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.3%1-110.1%1-28.1%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.7%3-23.8%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.9%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 38.2% 2.62 +12.7%

Draw 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

Away win 34.4% 40.8% 2.45 -15.7%

Over 2.5 63.0% 57.1% 1.75 +10.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 36.4% 2.75 +8.1%

BTTS 63.1% 62.5% 1.60 +1.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 44.4% 2.25 +10.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–0 5.3%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Praha1.7

Slavia Praha1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA PRAHA · PPG 2.34

SLAVIA PRAHA · PPG 1.90

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Praha (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +12.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.3%

Slavia Praha (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Praha face Slavia Praha in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Praha a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Slavia Praha 34%, so Sparta Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sparta Praha and 1.6 for Slavia Praha (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Praha are averaging 2.34 points per game versus 1.90 for Slavia Praha. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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