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Telavi vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 24 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Telavi

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

UPCOMING

Samtredia

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 53% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.9%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-19.7%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.3%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Draw 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

Away win 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

Away O1.5 19.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telavi2.0

Samtredia0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TELAVI · PPG 2.33

SAMTREDIA · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Telavi (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.5%

Samtredia (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telavi face Samtredia in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telavi a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Samtredia 23%, so Telavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Telavi and 0.7 for Samtredia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telavi are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Samtredia. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +37.7%.

Telavi vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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