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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Shakhtar Donetsk

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Polessya

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+28.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.5%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.2%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 57.8% 1.73 -11.3%

Draw 23.9% 29.9% 3.35 -12.0%

Away win 24.7% 22.2% 4.50 +6.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 46.5% 2.15 +28.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 25.3% 3.95 +45.0%

BTTS 55.0% 51.3% 1.95 +7.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 25.0% 4.00 +32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhtar Donetsk1.7

Polessya1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTAR DONETSK · PPG 2.28

POLESSYA · PPG 2.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shakhtar Donetsk (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.0%

Polessya (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhtar Donetsk face Polessya in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Polessya 25%, so Shakhtar Donetsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.1 for Polessya (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 2.06 for Polessya. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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