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Dynamo Kyiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Dynamo Kyiv

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.6%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-111.3%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 66.7% 1.50 -20.1%

Draw 24.4% 26.0% 3.85 -3.6%

Away win 22.3% 17.9% 5.60 +14.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 62.5% 1.60 -21.3%

Away O1.5 23.8% 26.0% 3.85 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Kyiv1.7

Kolos Kovalivka0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO KYIV · PPG 1.78

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Kyiv (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.6%

Kolos Kovalivka (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Kyiv face Kolos Kovalivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Kolos Kovalivka 22%, so Dynamo Kyiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.9 for Kolos Kovalivka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.34 for Kolos Kovalivka. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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