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Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:00

Polessya

PPG 1.95 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.9%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 22.6% 17.2% 5.80 +18.6%

Over 2.5 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 29.4% 3.40 +8.1%

BTTS 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Away O1.5 31.7% 23.1% 4.33 +37.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 15.9%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polessya1.8

Zorya Luhansk1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

POLESSYA · PPG 1.95

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Polessya (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -18.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Zorya Luhansk (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polessya face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polessya a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Zorya Luhansk 23%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Polessya and 1.0 for Zorya Luhansk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polessya are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.48 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +37.3%.

Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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