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Mladost DG vs Dečić Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Mladost DG

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Dečić

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.6%0-28.0%0-34.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.0%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.6%2-17.0%2-25.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.8%3-12.7%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Draw 24.2% 34.7% 2.88 -18.2%

Away win 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 43.5% 2.30 +23.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 24.7% 4.05 +28.4%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 31.2% 27.3% 3.66 +14.2%

Away O1.5 46.3% 45.0% 2.22 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -58.2%

Bet Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 0–2 8.0%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost DG1.1

Dečić1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST DG · PPG 1.44

DEČIĆ · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladost DG (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -18.2%

Dečić (A) 48.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost DG face Dečić in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost DG a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Dečić 48%, so Dečić are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mladost DG and 1.5 for Dečić (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost DG are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.75 for Dečić. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.4%.

Mladost DG vs Dečić Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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