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Otrant-Olympic vs Buducnost Podgorica Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Otrant-Olympic

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

UPCOMING

Buducnost Podgorica

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-111.4%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-113.0%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-17.5%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-12.9%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 40.8% 2.45 +9.8%

Draw 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.9%

Away win 26.6% 37.0% 2.70 -16.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.3% 3.95 -10.5%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 31.2% 37.9% 2.64 -17.6%

Away O1.5 22.7% 35.2% 2.84 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -58.2%

Bet Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Otrant-Olympic1.1

Buducnost Podgorica0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OTRANT-OLYMPIC · PPG 1.21

BUDUCNOST PODGORICA · PPG 1.26

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Otrant-Olympic (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +9.8%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.9%

Buducnost Podgorica (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Otrant-Olympic face Buducnost Podgorica in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Otrant-Olympic a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Buducnost Podgorica 27%, so Otrant-Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Otrant-Olympic and 0.8 for Buducnost Podgorica (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Otrant-Olympic are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.26 for Buducnost Podgorica.

Otrant-Olympic vs Buducnost Podgorica Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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