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Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Jezero

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

UPCOMING

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.6%0-113.3%0-24.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.3%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-15.8%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.8%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 43.5% 2.30 -10.1%

Draw 32.0% 38.2% 2.62 -16.2%

Away win 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Over 2.5 34.6% 40.0% 2.50 -13.5%

Over 3.5 15.2% 21.5% 4.65 -17.6%

BTTS 42.4% 48.8% 2.05 -13.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.3% 2.61 -19.6%

Away O1.5 17.6% 31.1% 3.22 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -58.2%

Bet Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.6%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 1–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jezero0.9

Arsenal Tivat0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JEZERO · PPG 1.53

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 1.13

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.58 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jezero (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.1%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.2%

Arsenal Tivat (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jezero face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jezero a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Arsenal Tivat 29%, so Jezero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jezero and 0.6 for Arsenal Tivat (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jezero are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.13 for Arsenal Tivat.

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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