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Petrovac vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Petrovac

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

UPCOMING

Sutjeska

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+20.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.0%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.5%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-18.7%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.1%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 40.0% 2.50 +21.5%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

Away win 24.6% 38.2% 2.62 -21.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.0% 2.38 +20.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.5% 4.65 +20.1%

BTTS 49.9% 50.3% 1.99 -0.7%

Home O1.5 39.7% 34.2% 2.92 +15.9%

Away O1.5 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrovac1.4

Sutjeska0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROVAC · PPG 1.53

SUTJESKA · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Petrovac (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +21.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.8%

Sutjeska (A) 24.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrovac face Sutjeska in Montenegro - First League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrovac a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Sutjeska 25%, so Petrovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Petrovac and 0.8 for Sutjeska (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrovac are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.32 for Sutjeska. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.1%.

Petrovac vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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