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P. Horodenka vs MFC Metalurh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

P. Horodenka

PPG 1.08 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

MFC Metalurh

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-13.4%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-17.2%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.5%2-17.6%2-21.7%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.4%3-15.4%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-14.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.9% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 6.3% — — —

Over 2.5 47.1% — — —

Over 3.5 25.5% — — —

BTTS 31.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.1%

H 77% / xG 2.1-0.4 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.5%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 3–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P. Horodenka2.1

MFC Metalurh0.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

P. HORODENKA · PPG 1.08

MFC METALURH · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

P. Horodenka (H) 76.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MFC Metalurh (A) 6.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

P. Horodenka face MFC Metalurh in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P. Horodenka a 77% chance, the draw 17% and MFC Metalurh 6%, so P. Horodenka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for P. Horodenka and 0.4 for MFC Metalurh (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P. Horodenka are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.67 for MFC Metalurh. This match finished 3-1.

P. Horodenka vs MFC Metalurh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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