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AFC Totton vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

AFC Totton

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

UPCOMING

Hampton & Richmond

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.1%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.6%1-110.8%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-15.7%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

Over 2.5 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Over 3.5 40.0% 38.2% 2.62 +4.8%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Totton1.8

Hampton & Richmond1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC TOTTON · PPG 1.52

HAMPTON & RICHMOND · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AFC Totton (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Hampton & Richmond (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Totton face Hampton & Richmond in England - National League - South on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Totton a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Hampton & Richmond 30%, so AFC Totton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AFC Totton and 1.2 for Hampton & Richmond (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Totton are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.78 for Hampton & Richmond. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.8%.

AFC Totton vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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