Lazio W vs Sassuolo W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Italy - Serie A Women Regular Season - 19 Campo Mirko Fersini· Rome Saturday, April 25, 2026 10:30

Lazio W PPG 1.56

0-3 MISS

Sassuolo W PPG 0.67

Home· +13.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio W face Sassuolo W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio W a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Sassuolo W 9%, so Lazio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lazio W and 0.6 for Sassuolo W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio W are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Sassuolo W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 74.4%

Odds: 1.53 EV: +13.8%

Draw 16.9%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -38.3%

Away 8.6%

Odds: 5.10 EV: -56.1%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.1% Odds: 1.73 -6.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% Odds: — —

BTTS 40.8% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Lazio W

2.23

Sassuolo W

0.61

Model SuggestionHome +13.8% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.56), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus