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Lazio W vs Sassuolo W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

Lazio W

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sassuolo W

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.0%1-17.9%1-22.4%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-16.6%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-16.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.4% 65.4% 1.53 +13.8%

Draw 16.9% 27.4% 3.65 -38.3%

Away win 8.6% 19.6% 5.10 -56.1%

Over 2.5 54.1% 57.8% 1.73 -6.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 40.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.8%

H 74% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio W2.2

Sassuolo W0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO W · PPG 1.56

SASSUOLO W · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.56), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lazio W (H) 74.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +13.8%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -38.3%

Sassuolo W (A) 8.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -56.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio W face Sassuolo W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio W a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Sassuolo W 9%, so Lazio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lazio W and 0.6 for Sassuolo W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio W are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Sassuolo W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Lazio W vs Sassuolo W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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