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Juventus W vs AS Roma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

Juventus W

PPG 2.11 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AS Roma W

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.0%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.4%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 45.5% 2.20 +12.4%

Draw 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.0%

Away win 21.2% 37.7% 2.65 -43.8%

Over 2.5 36.7% 66.7% 1.50 -45.0%

Over 3.5 17.4% — — —

BTTS 40.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.6%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus W1.4

AS Roma W0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS W · PPG 2.11

AS ROMA W · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.11) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.44)

Win probability 1X2

Juventus W (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +12.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.0%

AS Roma W (A) 21.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -43.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus W face AS Roma W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus W a 51% chance, the draw 28% and AS Roma W 21%, so Juventus W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Juventus W and 0.8 for AS Roma W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus W are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 2.44 for AS Roma W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Juventus W vs AS Roma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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