Today / Italy - Serie A Women / Como W vs Parma W

Como W vs Parma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

Como W

PPG 1.11 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Parma W

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+21.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.3%0-18.0%0-21.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.4%1-19.6%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-15.8%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-12.3%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 46.5% 2.15 +21.9%

Draw 31.1% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away win 12.2% 32.3% 3.10 -62.2%

Over 2.5 21.5% 48.8% 2.05 -55.9%

Over 3.5 7.8% — — —

BTTS 22.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob22.8%

H 57% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.4%

#2 0–0 20.3%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 1–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Como W1.2

Parma W0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.5% · O3.5 PROB 7.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COMO W · PPG 1.11

PARMA W · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Como W (H) 56.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +21.9%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Parma W (A) 12.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -62.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Como W face Parma W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Como W a 57% chance, the draw 31% and Parma W 12%, so Como W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Como W and 0.4 for Parma W (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Como W are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.44 for Parma W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Como W vs Parma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Women Predictions