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Catanzaro vs Spezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:30

Catanzaro

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Spezia

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.9% — a clear edge.

+65.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.8%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.1%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.7%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-19.1%4+-23.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.0% 45.9% 2.18 +65.7%

Draw 15.0% 29.0% 3.45 -48.3%

Away win 9.0% 32.3% 3.10 -72.1%

Over 2.5 64.7% 54.6% 1.83 +18.4%

Over 3.5 42.7% 32.3% 3.10 +32.4%

BTTS 49.6% 61.7% 1.62 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 76% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Catanzaro2.6

Spezia0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CATANZARO · PPG 1.88

SPEZIA · PPG 0.76

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.88), Away POOR (0.76) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Catanzaro (H) 76.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +65.7%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -48.3%

Spezia (A) 9.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -72.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Catanzaro face Spezia in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Catanzaro a 76% chance, the draw 15% and Spezia 9%, so Catanzaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Catanzaro and 0.8 for Spezia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Catanzaro are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.76 for Spezia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +65.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Catanzaro vs Spezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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