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SGS Essen W vs CZ Jena W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:00

SGS Essen W

PPG 0.50 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CZ Jena W

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.9%0-27.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.6%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.6%2-17.5%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 61.0% 1.64 -46.4%

Draw 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.8%

Away win 40.3% 21.1% 4.75 +91.4%

Over 2.5 45.6% 58.8% 1.70 -22.5%

Over 3.5 24.2% 37.0% 2.70 -34.7%

BTTS 50.7% 60.6% 1.65 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.7%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SGS Essen W1.2

CZ Jena W1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SGS ESSEN W · PPG 0.50

CZ JENA W · PPG 0.73

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

SGS Essen W (H) 32.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -46.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.8%

CZ Jena W (A) 40.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +91.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SGS Essen W face CZ Jena W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SGS Essen W a 33% chance, the draw 27% and CZ Jena W 40%, so CZ Jena W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SGS Essen W and 1.3 for CZ Jena W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SGS Essen W are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.73 for CZ Jena W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +91.4%. This match finished 4-3.

SGS Essen W vs CZ Jena W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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