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SGS Essen W vs CZ Jena W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Germany - Frauen Bundesliga logo Germany flag Germany - Frauen Bundesliga Regular Season - 23 Stadion Essen· Essen Saturday, April 25, 2026 10:00
SGS Essen W logo SGS Essen W PPG 0.50
4-3 MISS
CZ Jena W logo CZ Jena W PPG 0.73
Away· +91.4% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity
70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

SGS Essen W face CZ Jena W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SGS Essen W a 33% chance, the draw 27% and CZ Jena W 40%, so CZ Jena W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SGS Essen W and 1.3 for CZ Jena W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SGS Essen W are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.73 for CZ Jena W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +91.4%. This match finished 4-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 32.7%
Odds: 1.64 EV: -46.4%
Draw 26.9%
Odds: 3.65 EV: -1.8%
Away 40.3%
Odds: 4.75 EV: +91.4%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.6% Odds: 1.70 -22.5%
Over 3.5 24.2% Odds: 2.70 -34.7%
BTTS 50.7% Odds: 1.65 -16.3%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-1
3rd 1-0
4th 1-2
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

SGS Essen W
1.17
CZ Jena W
1.33

Model Suggestion

BTTS -16.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+91.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%
O2.5/Under 59%
BTTS/No 55%
Score Hit 28%
ROI 6.0%
Bet Hit 67% (9 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity
70%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.73)

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