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Prykarpattia vs UCSA Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 09:00

Prykarpattia

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

UCSA

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+23.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-17.8%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.4%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.4%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-14.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 46.5% 2.15 +23.0%

Draw 26.5% 36.4% 2.75 -27.1%

Away win 16.3% 30.3% 3.30 -46.2%

Over 2.5 35.4% — — —

Over 3.5 16.4% — — —

BTTS 36.5% 51.3% 1.95 -28.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob36.5%

H 57% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prykarpattia1.5

UCSA0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PRYKARPATTIA · PPG 1.25

UCSA · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Prykarpattia (H) 57.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +23.0%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -27.1%

UCSA (A) 16.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -46.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prykarpattia face UCSA in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prykarpattia a 57% chance, the draw 27% and UCSA 16%, so Prykarpattia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Prykarpattia and 0.6 for UCSA (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prykarpattia are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.08 for UCSA. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Prykarpattia vs UCSA Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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