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Madura Utd vs Dewa Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 08:30

Madura Utd

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Dewa Utd

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.8%0-26.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.5%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.8%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 31.3% 3.20 +13.3%

Draw 27.4% 28.2% 3.55 -2.7%

Away win 37.2% 51.3% 1.95 -27.5%

Over 2.5 44.1% 60.6% 1.65 -27.2%

Over 3.5 23.0% 38.5% 2.60 -40.2%

BTTS 49.7% 65.4% 1.53 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 15%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.7%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 10.8%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Madura Utd1.2

Dewa Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MADURA UTD · PPG 0.93

DEWA UTD · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.93) vs Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Madura Utd (H) 35.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.7%

Dewa Utd (A) 37.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Madura Utd face Dewa Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madura Utd a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Dewa Utd 37%, so Dewa Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Madura Utd and 1.2 for Dewa Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madura Utd are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.29 for Dewa Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Madura Utd vs Dewa Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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