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Korsnäs vs Kungsängen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Korsnäs

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Kungsängen

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.6%0-27.3%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.9%1-111.9%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.9%2-17.4%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 39.2% 2.55 -21.2%

Draw 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

Away win 44.7% 45.9% 2.18 -2.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 74.6% 1.34 -27.9%

Over 3.5 31.8% 53.2% 1.88 -40.2%

BTTS 55.9% 75.2% 1.33 -25.7%

Home O1.5 34.6% 52.6% 1.90 -34.3%

Away O1.5 46.7% 57.1% 1.75 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korsnäs1.2

Kungsängen1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KORSNÄS · PPG 0.33

KUNGSÄNGEN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Korsnäs (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.0%

Kungsängen (A) 44.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korsnäs face Kungsängen in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korsnäs a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Kungsängen 45%, so Kungsängen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Korsnäs and 1.5 for Kungsängen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korsnäs are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Kungsängen.

Korsnäs vs Kungsängen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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