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Skiljebo vs Sunnersta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Skiljebo

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sunnersta

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.9%0-25.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.4%1-19.6%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 43.9% 2.28 -11.1%

Draw 23.0% 29.0% 3.45 -12.4%

Away win 38.0% 40.8% 2.45 -6.9%

Over 2.5 64.7% 70.9% 1.41 -8.8%

Over 3.5 43.2% 49.0% 2.04 -11.9%

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 2–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skiljebo1.6

Sunnersta1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SKILJEBO · PPG 2.33

SUNNERSTA · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Skiljebo (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -11.1%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.4%

Sunnersta (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skiljebo face Sunnersta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skiljebo a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Sunnersta 38%, so Skiljebo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Skiljebo and 1.8 for Sunnersta (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skiljebo are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.11 for Sunnersta. This match finished 2-2.

Skiljebo vs Sunnersta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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