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Gute vs Lidingö Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:30

Gute

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lidingö

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.6%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.1%1-110.5%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.1%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 58.1% 1.72 -9.0%

Draw 23.2% 27.4% 3.65 -9.2%

Away win 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 68.5% 1.46 -12.8%

Over 3.5 36.7% 46.7% 2.14 -21.5%

BTTS 59.9% 69.0% 1.45 -13.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 43.1% 2.32 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0✓ 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gute1.9

Lidingö1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GUTE · PPG 1.38

LIDINGÖ · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gute (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -9.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.2%

Lidingö (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gute face Lidingö in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gute a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Lidingö 24%, so Gute are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gute and 1.1 for Lidingö (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gute are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.11 for Lidingö. This match finished 1-0.

Gute vs Lidingö Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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