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Korsnäs vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Korsnäs

PPG 0.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gute

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.0%0-28.6%0-35.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.6%2-16.3%2-25.4%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 37.7% 2.65 -19.6%

Draw 23.5% 27.0% 3.70 -7.8%

Away win 51.1% 46.5% 2.15 +9.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 74.6% 1.34 -20.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 51.8% 1.93 -29.4%

BTTS 56.3% 75.8% 1.32 -25.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 54.3% 1.84 -43.7%

Away O1.5 48.5% 60.2% 1.66 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob56.3%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korsnäs1.1

Gute1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KORSNÄS · PPG 0.38

GUTE · PPG 1.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Korsnäs (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -19.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.8%

Gute (A) 51.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korsnäs face Gute in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korsnäs a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Gute 51%, so Gute are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Korsnäs and 1.7 for Gute (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korsnäs are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Gute. This match finished 1-4.

Korsnäs vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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