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Helges vs Falu BS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Helges

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Falu BS

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-112.1%0-212.8%0-39.1%0-4+7.9%1 1-04.2%1-19.0%1-29.5%1-36.7%1-4+5.8%2 2-01.6%2-13.3%2-23.5%2-32.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 13.3% 7.50 +8.8%

Draw 21.9% 19.0% 5.25 +9.0%

Away win 62.8% 81.3% 1.23 -22.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 80.0% 1.25 -25.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 60.6% 1.65 -39.6%

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 57.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob53.0%

A 63% / xG 0.7-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.8%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2✓ 9.5%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helges0.7

Falu BS2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HELGES · PPG 0.33

FALU BS · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.38 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Helges (H) 15.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +8.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +9.0%

Falu BS (A) 62.8%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helges face Falu BS in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helges a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Falu BS 63%, so Falu BS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Helges and 2.1 for Falu BS (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helges are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.38 for Falu BS. This match finished 1-2.

Helges vs Falu BS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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