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Lidingö vs Skiljebo Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Lidingö

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Skiljebo

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.7%0-210.5%0-38.5%0-4+9.1%1 1-03.2%1-17.9%1-29.5%1-37.7%1-4+8.3%2 2-01.5%2-13.6%2-24.3%2-33.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.4%3-11.1%3-21.3%3-31.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 25.6% 3.90 -30.3%

Draw 18.7% 27.8% 3.60 -19.6%

Away win 68.6% 60.2% 1.66 +13.9%

Over 2.5 64.4% 67.6% 1.48 -4.7%

Over 3.5 43.4% 46.1% 2.17 -5.8%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Away O1.5 69.2% 63.7% 1.57 +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob55.9%

A 69% / xG 0.9-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 0–3 8.5%

#5 1–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidingö0.9

Skiljebo2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDINGÖ · PPG 0.44

SKILJEBO · PPG 2.11

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.52 for Away, form 0.44 vs 2.11

Win probability 1X2

Lidingö (H) 12.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -30.3%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -19.6%

Skiljebo (A) 68.6%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidingö face Skiljebo in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidingö a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Skiljebo 69%, so Skiljebo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lidingö and 2.4 for Skiljebo (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidingö are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 2.11 for Skiljebo. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +13.6%.

Lidingö vs Skiljebo Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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