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Monaro Panthers vs Cooma Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:00

Monaro Panthers

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cooma Tigers FC

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.7%0-22.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.7%1-16.5%1-25.8%1-33.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.6%3-16.3%3-25.6%3-33.3%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-16.8%4+-26.0%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 50.0% 2.00 +1.8%

Draw 19.5% 28.6% 3.50 -19.1%

Away win 29.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.7%

Over 2.5 72.6% 73.5% 1.36 -1.3%

Over 3.5 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

BTTS 69.7% 76.9% 1.30 -9.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 65.8% 1.52 +0.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.7%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monaro Panthers2.4

Cooma Tigers FC1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONARO PANTHERS · PPG 2.50

COOMA TIGERS FC · PPG 2.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Monaro Panthers (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.8%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -19.1%

Cooma Tigers FC (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monaro Panthers face Cooma Tigers FC in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monaro Panthers a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Cooma Tigers FC 30%, so Monaro Panthers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Monaro Panthers and 1.8 for Cooma Tigers FC (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monaro Panthers are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.10 for Cooma Tigers FC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Monaro Panthers vs Cooma Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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