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Canberra FC vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 06:00

Canberra FC

PPG 2.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Queanbeyan City

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.6%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.9%1-18.3%1-25.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.4%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.3%4+-24.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 69.4% 1.44 -19.8%

Draw 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Away win 22.9% 20.0% 5.00 +8.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

BTTS 62.8% 73.0% 1.37 -14.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 78.7% 1.27 -15.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 40.8% 2.45 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.8%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra FC2.3

Queanbeyan City1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA FC · PPG 2.70

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Canberra FC (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Queanbeyan City (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra FC face Queanbeyan City in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra FC a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Queanbeyan City 23%, so Canberra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Canberra FC and 1.2 for Queanbeyan City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra FC are averaging 2.70 points per game versus 1.55 for Queanbeyan City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Canberra FC vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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