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Incheon Utd vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

South-Korea - K League 1 logo South-Korea flag South-Korea - K League 1 Regular Season - 10 Sungui Arena Park· Incheon Saturday, April 25, 2026 07:30
Incheon Utd logo Incheon Utd PPG 0.75
1-0 HIT CS2
Jeju Utd logo Jeju Utd PPG 1.75
Away· +13.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...
48% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Jeju Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Jeju Utd 30%, so Incheon Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Incheon Utd and 1.0 for Jeju Utd (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Jeju Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.9%
Odds: 2.00 EV: -16.2%
Draw 28.3%
Odds: 3.25 EV: -8.0%
Away 29.8%
Odds: 3.80 EV: +13.2%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 39.7% Odds: 2.10 -16.6%
Over 3.5 19.6% Odds: 3.85 -24.5%
BTTS 45.7% Odds: 1.83 -16.4%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 0-1
4th 0-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Incheon Utd
1.26
Jeju Utd
1.02

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5/Under 56%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 50%
ROI -73.5%
Bet Hit 17% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...
48%
CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.75) strong but model favors Home (P=41.9%)

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