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Incheon Utd vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 07:30

Incheon Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.4%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

Draw 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.0%

Away win 29.8% 26.3% 3.80 +13.2%

Over 2.5 39.7% 47.6% 2.10 -16.6%

Over 3.5 19.6% 26.0% 3.85 -24.5%

BTTS 45.7% 54.6% 1.83 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.7%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0✓ 12.9%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Utd1.3

Jeju Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UTD · PPG 0.75

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

Chance this pick lands

46%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.75) strong but model favors Home (P=41.9%)

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Utd (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.0%

Jeju Utd (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Jeju Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Jeju Utd 30%, so Incheon Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Incheon Utd and 1.0 for Jeju Utd (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Jeju Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Incheon Utd vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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