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Bucheon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 07:30

Bucheon FC

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-110.5%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.8%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-16.7%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.5%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 31.3% 3.20 +57.1%

Draw 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away win 18.9% 44.4% 2.25 -57.5%

Over 2.5 24.5% 46.5% 2.15 -47.3%

Over 3.5 9.4% 25.0% 4.00 -62.4%

BTTS 29.7% 54.1% 1.85 -45.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob29.7%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.5%

#2 0–0 18.1%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC1.1

Gimcheon Sangmu0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.5% · O3.5 PROB 9.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC · PPG 0.75

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC (H) 49.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +57.1%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +4.3%

Gimcheon Sangmu (A) 18.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -57.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC face Gimcheon Sangmu in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC a 49% chance, the draw 32% and Gimcheon Sangmu 19%, so Bucheon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bucheon FC and 0.6 for Gimcheon Sangmu (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Gimcheon Sangmu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +57.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Bucheon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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