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Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 07:00

Peninsula Power

PPG 2.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moreton City Excelsior

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.6%0-23.1%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.4%1-17.7%1-26.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.4%3-15.9%3-25.1%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.2%4+-24.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

Draw 21.0% 26.3% 3.80 -12.1%

Away win 35.0% 37.7% 2.65 -7.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 70.4% 1.42 -2.9%

Over 3.5 46.3% 48.8% 2.05 -5.1%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 61.6% 58.8% 1.70 +4.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peninsula Power2.1

Moreton City Excelsior1.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PENINSULA POWER · PPG 2.18

MORETON CITY EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Peninsula Power (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.1%

Moreton City Excelsior (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peninsula Power face Moreton City Excelsior in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peninsula Power a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Moreton City Excelsior 35%, so Peninsula Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Peninsula Power and 1.7 for Moreton City Excelsior (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peninsula Power are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.45 for Moreton City Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +18.0%.

Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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