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Fremantle City vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sorrento

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.1%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.5%1-112.0%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.9%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.4%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 32.6% — — —

Over 2.5 51.8% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 55.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.5%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–1✓ 8.1%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City1.5

Sorrento1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.50

SORRENTO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 42.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Sorrento in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Sorrento 33%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fremantle City and 1.3 for Sorrento (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Sorrento. This match finished 0-1.

Fremantle City vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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