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Concepción vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:30

Concepción

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

A. Italiano

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-17.6%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 50.5% 1.98 +6.1%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Over 2.5 49.0% 50.0% 2.00 -2.0%

Over 3.5 27.2% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Away O1.5 19.7% 32.3% 3.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 3.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepción1.5

A. Italiano0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.64

A. ITALIANO · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Concepción (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +6.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

A. Italiano (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepción face A. Italiano in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepción a 54% chance, the draw 25% and A. Italiano 22%, so Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Concepción and 0.8 for A. Italiano (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepción are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.60 for A. Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Concepción vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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