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Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:30

Everton de Vina

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

UPCOMING

U. Catolica

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.4%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 35.7% 2.80 +28.8%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -10.5%

Away win 30.2% 44.2% 2.26 -31.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.7% 33.9% 2.95 +20.1%

BTTS 63.5% 62.5% 1.60 +1.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 41.7% 2.40 +19.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 3.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton de Vina1.8

U. Catolica1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON DE VINA · PPG 1.18

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Everton de Vina (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +28.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.5%

U. Catolica (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton de Vina face U. Catolica in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance, the draw 24% and U. Catolica 30%, so Everton de Vina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Everton de Vina and 1.6 for U. Catolica (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton de Vina are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.60 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%.

Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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